Research Highlights
Below are some examples of recent work that MERP scientists have collaborated on:
Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management
Johanna Jacomina Heymans, Marta Coll, Jason S. Link, Steven Mackinson, Jeroen Steenbeek, Carl Walters, Villy Christensen
Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) models are easier to construct and use compared to most other ecosystem modelling techniques and are therefore more widely used by more scientists and managers. This, however, creates a problem with quality assurance; to address this we provide an overview of best practices for creating Ecopath models. We describe the diagnostics that can be used to check for thermodynamic and ecological principles, and highlight principles that should be used for balancing a model. We then highlight the pitfalls when comparing Ecopath models using Ecological Network Analysis indices. For dynamic simulations in Ecosim we show the state of the art in calibrating the model by fitting it to time series using a formal fitting procedure and statistical goodness of fit. Finally, we show how Monte Carlo simulations can be used to address uncertainty in input parameters, and we discuss the use of models in a management context, specifically using the concept of ‘key runs’ for ecosystem-based management. This novel list of best practices for EwE models will enable ecosystem managers to evaluate the goodness of fit of the given EwE model to the ecosystem management question.
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Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems
Payne M, Barange M, Cheung W, MacKenzie B, Batchelder H, Cormon X, Eddy T, Fernandes J, Hollowed A, Jones M, Link J, Neubauer P, Ortiz I, Queirós A and Paula JR.
Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.
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Equal temperature–size responses of the sexes are widespread within arthropod species
Andrew G. Hirst, Curtis R. Horne and David Atkinson
Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is often affected by environmental conditions, but the effect of temperature on SSD in ectotherms still requires rigorous investigation. We compared the plastic responses of size-at-maturity to temperature between males and females within 85 diverse arthropod species, inwhich individuals of both sexeswere reared through ontogeny under identical conditions with excess food. We find that the sexes show similar relative (proportional) temperature–body size (T–S) responses on average. The high degree of similarity occurs despite an analysis that includes a wide range of animal body sizes, variation in degree of SSD and differences in the sign of the T–S response. We find no support for Rensch’s rule, which predicts greater variation in male size, or indeed the reverse, greater female size variation. SSD shows no systematic temperature dependence in any of the 17 arthropod orders examined, five of which (Diptera, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, Coleoptera and Calanoida) include more than six thermal responses.We suggest that the same proportional T–S response may generally have equivalent fitness costs and benefits in both sexes. This contrasts with effects of juvenile density, and food quantity/quality, which commonly result in greater size plasticity in females, suggesting these variables have different adaptive effects on SSD.
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Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management
Kieran Hyder, Icarus Allen, Paul Blackwell, Julia Blanchard, Michael Burrows, Johanna Heymans, Michael Heath, Douglas Speirs, Michael Spence et al.
Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries.
In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.
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